Anatomy of a botched sabotage
Rime Allaf - Sep 2009
Bitterlemons International

Years of accusations, recriminations and outright demonization have rendered most Syrians stoic and resilient about their reputation as radicals, rejectionists and rebels. None of these terms is meant to include even benign interpretations of leftist idealism.

Lately, a new moniker has joined the list of critical descriptions, with Syria now labeled a spoiler, a nasty agent making everything it touches turn awry and conjuring images of a perfect, trouble-free region that would be heaven on earth had it not been for the incorrigible Syrians.

It passes as analysis to point to the alleged common denominator to all the problems in the region as being Syria; when the latter uses the reverse side of the argument, pledging to help solve the problems of the region, it is accused of being too big for its boots and too confident of its capacity to influence--a line of reasoning that goes missing when it comes to apportioning blame following yet another atrocity.

While the burden of proof has rarely gotten in the way of a rapid, indignant charge of guilt, the novelty of automatically laying the blame on Syria seems to be wearing off with each additional facile attack. Some destiny-changing events, such as the spectacular assassination of Rafiq Hariri, quickly turned into a quasi-unanimous condemnation of Syria (or someone in Syria) based on the political scenarios playing out and on physical presence. It was, and remains, unproved, but for a lot of people it simply made sense.

The accusations following the August bombings in Baghdad, however, have been received in a much more hesitant tone even though numerous parties had already condemned Syria for having kept its borders open since the invasion of Iraq. Even the usually vocal pan-Arab (mostly Saudi) media has been hugely subdued in its reactions, going as far as reminding the Iraqi prime minister of Syria sheltering a good one and a half million Iraqi refugees, and of its paying a heavy price because of this humanitarian gesture.

Most Arab states have remained quiet for similar reasons, finding it beggars belief that the president of one country would allow such a crime to be commissioned while hosting the president of the other. A deterioration between Syria and Iraq would hurt both sides, emerging voices of reason lament, and serve no one. Rather than rush to judgment, the Arab League is advocating inter-Arab dialogue to keep inconveniently effective Turkish mediation out, but seems mostly tongue-tied itself.

Most importantly, the Iraqis themselves have been arguing about the suitability and veracity of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's announcements. Syria's perfectly pertinent points about having hosted people like Maliki himself during the Saddam Hussein years, albeit not entirely for altruistic reasons of humanitarian asylum, continue to put the focus on the burden of proof, especially as all the regimes in the region are only too knowledgeable about the value of "confessions" made so quickly, so publicly. Tellingly, the occupiers themselves have remained quiet, in a real change of attitude from the White House of Bush, Rumsfeld and co., who would have jumped with relish at yet another opportunity to threaten the Syrians.

Of all the demands made by the Iraqi prime minister, none is perhaps as indicative of possible ulterior motives as the call for an international tribunal to try suspects for the case, especially in the presence of a foreign occupation whose troops abound.

With so much commotion, it would be easy to forget that this degradation not only comes in the midst of a great improvement in Syrian-Iraqi ties, but also in Syrian-American relations (including, ironically, in the realm of Iraqi security), Syrian-Saudi relations (strengthened by a redefinition of mutual goals in Lebanon) and the progress made between Syria and the European Union on the Association Agreement.

Syria is supposed to have jeopardized all this, just for the evil satisfaction of killing so many Iraqis in the middle of an official visit by their prime minister to Damascus? In the highly unlikely affirmative, this would have certainly consisted of a clean break with recent policy and with the latest political developments.

There is an attempt to make a clean break and there is a sabotaging spoiler, but it is difficult to imagine Syria inflicting self-harm after such a long process of gradual rapprochement with neighbors and regional powers. Whoever choreographed the Maliki accusations (assuming they were not simply a knee-jerk reaction) has the entire region in his sights.

When a new strategy to secure the realm was proposed to the Israeli prime minister in 1996, it based itself on the need to contain, destabilize, and roll back the entities threatening Israel's hegemony. Iraq was duly secured, with many of these strategists having graced the Bush administration's design of the invasion of Iraq. But frustratingly for Israel, especially for the same prime minister who has come back to power 13 years after "A Clean Break" was initially sold and articulated to him, Syria has a nasty habit of slipping out of isolation (whether by determination or by sheer luck) and making itself a difficult target to secure, destabilize or roll back.

The problem is not merely one between Syria and Iraq, or Syria and another of its neighbors. There are real spoilers in the region with their eye on the bigger picture, for a longer term, determined to keep molding the region according to their unique needs. Maliki's accusations may have been ill-thought reactions, to which his own shaky political future contributed, but there is no doubt that inspiration found him, and that the regional spoilers never fail to be of service when the need arises. So far, it is reassuring to note that the attempted sabotage has failed, but Syria and Iraq have a lot of catching up to do.- Published 10/9/2009 © bitterlemons-international.org

Rime Allaf is an associate fellow at Chatham House, London.